Normally I don’t like to write about European prospects in the midst of a very rough patch in the market because in that case there isn’t much I can say that isn’t already being said. I find it more useful to wait for those recurring periods in which the markets recover and optimism rises. Still, [...]
Revisiting predictions
May 3rd, 2012
In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of [...]
The ways China can rebalance
Apr 9th, 2012
No matter how sincere its intentions, what Beijing says it will do over the next few years is meaningful only if its policies are both internally consistent and do not violate external constraints. As I proposed two weeks ago, in this post I will try to lay out as logically as possible the economic options [...]
The Economist sees (and raises)
Mar 30th, 2012
The Free Exchange blog at The Economist has accepted my bet, and very cleverly (the bastards!) they have added a second one. For two years I have been arguing that a Chinese rebalancing will require much slower GDP growth rates than we currently think possible and, working backwards from annual consumption growth rates of 7-8%, [...]
I would like to make a bet with The Economist
Mar 26th, 2012
I recently read in The Guardian an article by enthusiastic orientalist Martin Jacques in which he says that The Economist has just predicted that China’s GDP, measured in nominal dollars, will will be the world’s largest by 2018. Earlier estimates, he says had China becoming the largest economy in the world by 2027 I have always been a little skeptical about [...]
The Japan debt disaster and China’s (non)rebalancing
Mar 20th, 2012
In this issue of the newsletter I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s current account surplus has declined sharply from its peak of roughly 10% of GDP [...]
The World Bank proposes tough medicine for China
Mar 10th, 2012
Contrary to some recent research reports cited in the press I do not think we have seen any substantial rebalancing of the economy towards consumption in 2011. This is largely an argument being made by economists who did not see why Chinese consumption repression was all along at the heart of the growth model. These [...]
When will China emerge from the global crisis?
Feb 22nd, 2012
This posting is from the January 30 issue of my newsletter, and so ignores recent events in Chongqing, but of course those events make my discussion of the political debate entry all the more relevant, I think. Before getting to the policy debate, I want to mention that in late January Caixin, one of my favorite magazines, had [...]
And…. we’re back…
Feb 20th, 2012
Welcome back to China Financial Markets. We had trouble with our old host and had to set up a new one. In doing so, however, we lost most of my postings since last August along with the comments. I will be able to set up the posts again, but the comments are probably lost forever, which is [...]
Some predictions for the rest of the decade
Aug 28th, 2011
Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. We are so caught up in [...]
Foreign capital, go home!
Aug 17th, 2011
Is the PBoC going to stop buying USG bonds? Once again we are hearing very worried noises from various sectors about the possibility of a reduction in Chinese purchases of USG bonds. Here is what an article the South China Morning Post said: China will press ahead with diversification of its US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange [...]
No hard landing, but no solution
Jul 31st, 2011
I have been arguing for a while that as long as the Chinese government retains its capacity to raise debt we are not going to see a sharp slowdown in economic growth – at least until 2013. Any indication that the economy is slowing too quickly will be met with a relaxation of credit controls, [...]
Current account dilemma
Jul 19th, 2011
Creditors nations are worried. Their obligors seem determined to take steps, they claim, to undermine or erode the value of their obligations – at the expense, of course, of the creditors. Over the past two years we have become pretty used to the spectacle of Chinese government officials warning the US about its responsibility to [...]
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