Monthly Archive for January 2008

In several earlier entries on this blog (for example see October 3: “Should Chinese banks acquire banks abroad?”), I have used the option framework to value Chinese banks and to try to correct what I believe to be a very widely-held but incorrect assumption – that the high prices investors are willing to pay for [...]

What can the PBoC and the financial authorities do?  Last Thursday Premier Wen Jiabao told the State Council that 2008 was going to be an extremely difficult year – an extraordinary admission by some accounts and indicative of how much pressure he is under.  Rising inflation and energy shortages have been made worse by the [...]

There is a longish and much-discussed article in this Sunday’s New York Times (“Waving goodbye to hegemony”) by Parag Khanna, a senior research fellow in the American Strategy Program of the New America Foundation, which strikes me as a sort of compendium of a lot of fashionable and muddled thinking about the evolving geopolitical order. [...]

A $7.1 billion loss?

This is a little off my normal beat, but last night just before I left my office I took one last quick look at Bloomberg, and was shocked to see that Société Générale had just announced that a rogue trader had knocked a $7.1 billion hole into its capital base.  Ouch!  This was an astounding [...]

There were plenty of new numbers today to think about in trying to understand what is happening in the Chinese economy.  While lots of different analysts are putting different spins on these numbers, I have to say that the latest batch of numbers has done nothing to allay any of my worries about the overheating [...]

Zhu Xiaoliang, deputy head of the Ministry of Commerce’s department of market operation regulation, said in a televised interview yesterday that inflation in China would remain high but would gradually ease. He also promised that the ministry would ensure adequate supplies of major food products such as meat and vegetables to stabilize prices during the [...]

The stock market continues to crash.  After yesterdays’ unhappy 5.14% drop the Shanghai Composite was down 7.21% as of close to day, although late in the day it did bounce off its bottom – it had been down nearly 8.3%.  The Shanghai B-share market (in which I am invested – ugh) did even worse.  It [...]

About 15 minutes ago, as I was riding in a taxi back to my office with one of my students, Gao Ming, he told me about a recent Jim Rogers interview in the local media. Apparently during the interview Rogers said that a sharp US slowdown would have a significant adverse impact on the Chinese [...]

My previous (January 16) posting on QDIIs elicited a lot of comment and disagreement, so I thought I would return to the subject with some additional information on why I think that earlier enthusiasm for QDIIs is likely to be short-lived.   The ICBC/Credit Suisse joint venture recently launched its own newly-created QDII.  The fund [...]

I have been told that the CBRC posted on its website today (it is not yet on the English website) a piece stating that in 2007 they had discovered RMB 860 billion is “irregularities”, without specifying what those irregularities are.  I am very curious to know if that means false accounting of new loans – [...]