The State Information Center, a think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top planning agency, has weighed into the policy debate by recommending that the government maintain its tightening monetary policy. It said that the government might consider relaxing the measures over the short term because of last month’s horrific …
Read More…Archive for February, 2008
Revisiting the one-child policy
As a finance guy whose area of interest is financial stability and the impact of short-term adjustments on the economy, I usually don’t spend a lot of time thinking about what might happen in the next few decades, but because of the significant and historically unprecedented demographic imbalances we are seeing in the world today, …
Read More…Will inflation affect China and the US differently?
According to yesterday’s Bloomberg: The yuan fell by the most in almost two weeks versus the dollar on speculation the central bank wants to slow the appreciation to limit the impact on exporters. The currency dropped for a third day as the People’s Bank of China may seek to deter speculators from betting on …
Read More…When will China overtake the US economically?
According to Friday’s China Daily (and a host of other newspapers around the world), a just published Gallup survey claims that most Americans think China will be the world’s largest economy within 20 years. We obviously need to take these opinions with a grain of salt since, according to the same survey, 40% of Americans …
Read More…NPLs for the big commercial banks rose last quarter
As if keeping time with Victor Shih’s article (see previous entry) Standard & Poor’s warned yesterday that non-performing loan ratios in China have risen, and added that corporate defaults in 2008 may increase because of tighter credit controls and weakening demand from a slowing U.S. economy. NPLs for the major commercial banks (the big five …
Read More…Does the PBoC think hot money is a problem?
Yesterday I quoted extensively from a UBS report that argued very strongly against the likelihood of a one-off revaluation of the RMB. Much of my discussion concerned why I think that although I agree with some of the author’s points, I do not believe they are relevant to the case. I had planned to write …
Read More…Does the PBoC think hot money is a problem?
Yesterday I quoted extensively from a UBS report that argued very strongly against the likelihood of a one-off revaluation of the RMB. Much of my discussion concerned why I think that although I agree with some of the author’s points, I do not believe they are relevant to the case. I had planned to write …
Read More…China Daily on inflation
Yesterday the China Daily published an interesting editorial on inflation that may indicate what the concerns are among at least part of the leadership. Here it is in total: Early reports of shocking price hikes in areas hardest-hit by the bitter snowstorms might have made it relatively easy for the public to swallow a …
Read More…Should we expect a one-off jump or more gradual appreciation of the renminbi?
In a recent report Jonathan Anderson of UBS explains why he doesn’t think China will adjust the currency via a large one-off revaluation. As regular readers of my blog know, I have been arguing since early 2007 that there is a high probability that the financial authorities will eventually be forced into a one-off (15-20%) …
Read More…Bad numbers, but China might still prefer to hesitate
After all the market-related anxiety I felt during the last few days in New York, I returned to Beijing yesterday expecting a little less gloom, but nonetheless I suspect that anxiety levels in the corridors of power in Beijing are probably higher than ever. Yesterday the National Bureau of Statistics released PPI numbers for January …
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