I am not sure what impact this is likely to have in the market, but on Friday and over the weekend there was a lot of discussion about reports surfacing that the CSRC is trying to put pressure on Chinese fund managers to support share prices by restraining their selling activity. According to Saturday’s South [...]
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Posted in Stock market • No Comments »
Although China’s growth has been pretty spectacular during the past few decades, I have often heard it argued that a significant source of growth has simply been the unwinding of many decades of economic mismanagement. In order to test this I went onto Angus Maddison’s magnificent website where he tries to calculate real GDP (on [...]
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Posted in Economic growth • No Comments »
An article just came out on Reuters claiming that inside sources have revealed that China’s foreign currency reserves at the end of April were $1.7567 trillion. If this is true that means that reserves grew in the month of April by $74.5 billion, the biggest one-month reserve jump in China’s history (and probably in the [...]
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After yesterday’s stock market excitement, the government “quashed” rumors today that they were going to relax prices on refined oil products. According to China Daily, “the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s economic planning agency, said rumors that the authorities plan to relax domestic oil and gas price controls are baseless.” The Shanghai Securities News, [...]
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Posted in Informal banks • No Comments »
The stock market seems to be getting increasingly worried about the economic impact of the earthquake, even though Sichuan province comprises just 4% of China’s GDP production and most of Sichuan’s most developed areas, including its capital Chengdu, were left relatively unscathed. Still, it seems that uncertainty has increased in a variety of areas and [...]
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On Friday Stephen Green of Standard Chartered delighted his fans in the market by putting out a piece called “We strike gold in the Q1 PBoC report” in which he highlights 14 “gold nuggets” he found hidden away in the PBoC report. There was a lot of interesting stuff in his report and I recommend [...]
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Posted in PBoC • No Comments »
Today is relatively quiet on the China-financial-news front (the SSE Composite was down 36 bps, but not much else happened), so rather than discuss the most recent numbers and events and their possible implications for financial policy, I want to write about something a tad more theoretical. For the past two months there has been [...]
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Posted in Financial crisis • No Comments »
This has been a sad week for China, and it has certainly not been easy to watch on television the heartbreaking scenes of the effect of Monday’s earthquake. Sichuan is a heavily populated province, and many of my students have friends and family in the affected areas, so the disaster has hit us very hard. [...]
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Posted in Money growth • No Comments »
With yesterday’s bad April CPI number, the subsequent increase in minimum reserve requirements to 16.5%, and the slowing will-they-won’t-they appreciation of the RMB, it is tempting to stick to monetary topics in this and the next few blog entries, but regular readers know what I am going to say anyway. First, inflation may get a [...]
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Posted in Balance of payments • No Comments »
There is an article in today’s Financial Times, whose title, “Battle-scarred bankers lapse into a hoarding habit,” immediately triggered my interest. The article argues that one of the recent “paradoxes” of the international markets, that recovering stock prices for the leading international banks seem to indicate that the worst of the credit crisis may be [...]
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Posted in Economic growth • No Comments »