I am working on a fairly long entry that I will post this weekend about why a trade rebalancing and a consumption/savings rebalancing will take place in both China and the US whether or not we want it. This week has been crazy, among other reasons because a festival in Taiwan has invited one of [...]
More public worrying about the Chinese stimulus
Jul 24th, 2009
Although I am often surprised by how eagerly foreign commentators have embraced the Chinese fiscal stimulus story and see it as a great, shining success, I am happy to say, mercifully, that in China there is a lot more skepticism. There seems to be a serious debate among Chinese policymakers over the stimulus package. The [...]
Notes on a real estate trip in China
Jul 20th, 2009
I have wanted to discuss more on the real estate sector for a while even though I have to confess I am far from being an expert on the topic, and this in a market which even the experts find terribly confusing. What the real estate market is really telling us about underlying monetary conditions [...]
My blog has been blocked in China. Given all the internet blocking that has happened in the past few months I guess this is not much of a surprise, and I was sort of waiting for it to happen, even while I was hoping that it wouldn’t. I think after a few months – probably [...]
I don’t have time to do a long entry today, but in my June 30 entry I marveled at the huge explosion in new lending, and claimed that credible rumors suggested that total new loans for June would be an astonishing RMB 1.2 trillion. That would bring total new lending for 2009 to RMB 7.06 [...]
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