Monthly Archive for July 2011

I have been arguing for a while that as long as the Chinese government retains its capacity to raise debt we are not going to see a sharp slowdown in economic growth – at least until 2013.  Any indication that the economy is slowing too quickly will be met with a relaxation of credit controls, [...]

Current account dilemma

Creditors nations are worried.  Their obligors seem determined to take steps, they claim, to undermine or erode the value of their obligations – at the expense, of course, of the creditors. Over the past two years we have become pretty used to the spectacle of Chinese government officials warning the US about its responsibility to [...]

Incentives and debt

I want to start this newsletter with a story that may be fairly illustrative of one of the problems within the Chinese economy that I worry about.  There was an article in last Sunday’s edition of the South China Morning Post about a real estate project in Guangdong.  (WC Fields’ was supposed to have once [...]