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	<title>China Financial Markets &#187; Asian development model</title>
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	<description>Michael Pettis&#039; finance blog...</description>
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		<title>Revisiting predictions</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/03/revisiting-predictions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/03/revisiting-predictions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2012 13:10:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal debt and deficits]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1611</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>64</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Some predictions for the rest of the decade</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2011 09:33:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. We are so caught up in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>76</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese consumption and the Japanese “sorpasso”</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/08/10/chinese-consumption-and-the-japanese-sorpasso/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/08/10/chinese-consumption-and-the-japanese-sorpasso/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Aug 2010 05:56:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1301</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There has been a lot of excited press commentary recently about China’s overtaking Japan as the world’s second largest economy.  China’s GDP should be larger than Japan’s for the first time sometime this year, which in a similar context in 1987 the Italians called “il sorpasso”.  For all the excited search for the deeper meaning [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/08/10/chinese-consumption-and-the-japanese-sorpasso/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>109</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China: where’s the inflation?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/06/15/china-wheres-the-inflation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/06/15/china-wheres-the-inflation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jun 2010 12:15:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Aliber]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1250</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I apologize for waiting two weeks since my last post, but my schedule has been crazier than usual what with the SED meeting and a number of conferences and visitors to Beijing.  What&#8217;s more, next week I will go to New York and environs for a week, followed by a week in Italy.  It always [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/06/15/china-wheres-the-inflation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>50</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Who will pay for China&#8217;s bad loans?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/04/06/who-will-pay-for-chinas-bad-loans/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/04/06/who-will-pay-for-chinas-bad-loans/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Apr 2010 05:05:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal debt and deficits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NPLs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit expansion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade war]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1215</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since this is a very long post, it may make sense first to provide a quick summary of what I am going to argue.  As I have discussed often in earlier posts, pessimists are starting to worry about excessive debt levels in China, about which they are very right to worry, and many are predicting [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/04/06/who-will-pay-for-chinas-bad-loans/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>103</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stuck in neutral – what Japan’s rebalancing can teach us</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/03/02/stuck-in-neutral-what-japans-rebalancing-can-teach-us/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/03/02/stuck-in-neutral-what-japans-rebalancing-can-teach-us/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 06:42:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1179</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After such a long entry last week I thought I would spare my readers and do something much briefer.  A few days ago I read a good article (“Stuck on Neutral”) about Japan in the August 18 issue of the Economist.  You can find the article on the Economist website if you are a premium [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/03/02/stuck-in-neutral-what-japans-rebalancing-can-teach-us/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>70</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The difficult arithmetic of Chinese consumption</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/12/05/the-difficult-arithmetic-of-chinese-consumption/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/12/05/the-difficult-arithmetic-of-chinese-consumption/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:21:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1129</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How fast does consumption need to grow in China in order for a meaningful rebalancing to take place?  Probably a lot more than you think.  This is arithmetically the case because China is starting from such a low base. At roughly $1.2 trillion in 2008, total Chinese private consumption is only a little more than [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/12/05/the-difficult-arithmetic-of-chinese-consumption/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>82</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The IMF warns about surplus countries and global imbalances</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/03/the-imf-warns-about-surplus-countries-and-global-imbalances/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/03/the-imf-warns-about-surplus-countries-and-global-imbalances/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2009 11:11:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NPLs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1092</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As Beijing slowly unlocks from its 60th anniversary celebrations – the streets are still relatively empty but more and more people are going out, although my local Starbucks still hasn’t reopened, forcing me to go elsewhere for my hardcore caffeine fix – a lot is still going on in the rest of the world. Both [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/03/the-imf-warns-about-surplus-countries-and-global-imbalances/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Yet another discussion on the Asian savings glut hypothesis, and why it matters</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/20/yet-another-discussion-on-the-asian-savings-glut-hypothesis-and-why-it-matters/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/20/yet-another-discussion-on-the-asian-savings-glut-hypothesis-and-why-it-matters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:13:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exports and imports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Savings glut]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bibow]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Shanghai stock market was up 4.5% in very nervous trading today but down 16.3% since its recent peak at 3478 on August 4, and still trading at more than 30 times earnings.  All this turmoil is triggering all sorts of worried comments about the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus package and whether it has [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/20/yet-another-discussion-on-the-asian-savings-glut-hypothesis-and-why-it-matters/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>84</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What should have been discussed during the SED meetings (Part 2)</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/10/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/10/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2009 17:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exports and imports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global liquidity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=944</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In my last entry I tried to set out the necessary shifts over the next few years as the world, and especially China and the US, works out its imbalances.  These shifts will take place, I am pretty sure, but they can do so under a “good” scenario and a “bad” scenario. So what does [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/10/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>56</slash:comments>
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