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	<title>China Financial Markets &#187; Balance of payments</title>
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	<description>Michael Pettis&#039; finance blog...</description>
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		<title>Europe’s depressing prospects</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/18/europes-depressing-prospects/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/18/europes-depressing-prospects/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 11:51:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1622</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Normally I don’t like to write about European prospects in the midst of a very rough patch in the market because in that case there isn’t much I can say that isn’t already being said.  I find it more useful to wait for those recurring periods in which the markets recover and optimism rises.  Still, [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>64</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Japan debt disaster and China’s (non)rebalancing</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/20/the-japan-debt-disaster-and-chinas-nonrebalancing/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/20/the-japan-debt-disaster-and-chinas-nonrebalancing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2012 13:54:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade war]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this issue of the newsletter I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China.  The scenario concerns trade.  China’s current account surplus has declined sharply from its peak of roughly 10% of GDP [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/20/the-japan-debt-disaster-and-chinas-nonrebalancing/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>31</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Some predictions for the rest of the decade</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2011 09:33:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. We are so caught up in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/28/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>76</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Foreign capital, go home!</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/17/foreign-capital-go-home/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/17/foreign-capital-go-home/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:32:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PBoC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reserve currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reserves]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1544</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is the PBoC going to stop buying USG bonds?  Once again we are hearing very worried noises from various sectors about the possibility of a reduction in Chinese purchases of USG bonds.  Here is what an article the South China Morning Post said: China will press ahead with diversification of its US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/08/17/foreign-capital-go-home/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>55</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Current account dilemma</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/07/19/current-account-dilemma/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/07/19/current-account-dilemma/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 10:13:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1530</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Creditors nations are worried.  Their obligors seem determined to take steps, they claim, to undermine or erode the value of their obligations – at the expense, of course, of the creditors. Over the past two years we have become pretty used to the spectacle of Chinese government officials warning the US about its responsibility to [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/07/19/current-account-dilemma/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>102</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese recycling and US interest rates</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/04/15/chinese-recycling-and-us-interest-rates/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/04/15/chinese-recycling-and-us-interest-rates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Apr 2011 06:32:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I mentioned in last week’s blog entry that during my trips to New York, Washington and Hangzhou in the past two weeks one of the common themes was concern about rising debt levels and weaknesses in the banking sector.  Another theme – one which I want to discuss in this entry – was the possible [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/04/15/chinese-recycling-and-us-interest-rates/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>20</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>QE2 and the Titanic</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/11/10/qe2-and-the-titanic/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/11/10/qe2-and-the-titanic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Nov 2010 11:25:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency regime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exports and imports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hot money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade war]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1375</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China reported an October trade surplus of $27 billion Wednesday.  This is a very big number and not one likely to soothe anger directed at China.  It will be very hard for China credibly to argue that it is trying to contribute to global growth while pulling in more and more foreign demand.  Here is [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/11/10/qe2-and-the-titanic/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>79</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What do the &#8220;good&#8221; trade numbers tell us?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/09/11/what-do-the-good-trade-numbers-tell-us/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/09/11/what-do-the-good-trade-numbers-tell-us/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Sep 2010 09:34:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exports and imports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1329</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I apologize for taking so long to write but for the past rwo weeks (and the next five days) I have been travelling for conferences and meetings.  I spent last week in Buenos Aires at the 75th Anniversary Conference of the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina, where I gave a presentation on China and [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/09/11/what-do-the-good-trade-numbers-tell-us/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>89</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The capital tsunami is a bigger threat than the nuclear option</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:03:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global liquidity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1270</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since this is another long posting, it might make sense to summarize briefly its two parts.  In the first part, expanding on an OpEd piece of mine published by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, I argue that China&#8217;s &#8220;nuclear option&#8221;, which has generated a great deal of nervousness among investors and policy-making circles in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>51</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What do banking crises have to do with consumption?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/04/what-do-banking-crises-have-to-do-with-consumption/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/04/what-do-banking-crises-have-to-do-with-consumption/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Jul 2010 11:56:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NPLs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer demand]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1262</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just three days after returning to Beijing from New York, I had to leave again, this time  to a series of conferences in Torino, Italy, so it is hard to do much writing for my blog, especially since I won&#8217;t spend my free time in the hotel when there is so damned much food out [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/04/what-do-banking-crises-have-to-do-with-consumption/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>78</slash:comments>
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