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	<title>China Financial Markets &#187; Economic growth</title>
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	<description>Michael Pettis&#039; finance blog...</description>
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		<title>Revisiting predictions</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/03/revisiting-predictions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/05/03/revisiting-predictions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2012 13:10:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal debt and deficits]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1611</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 2006 I started making a number of predictions based on what I thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>64</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Small companies feel the pain in China</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/06/28/small-companies-feel-the-pain-in-china-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/06/28/small-companies-feel-the-pain-in-china-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jun 2011 18:42:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Much of last week’s newsletter was on the data that was released on inflation, new loans, investment, etc.  One thing worth noting in the current environment is that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are hurting, and last week’s minimum reserve hike – which came out the same day as the CPI number – will undoubtedly [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/06/28/small-companies-feel-the-pain-in-china-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>24</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How big is Chinese GDP?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/01/29/how-big-is-chinese-gdp/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/01/29/how-big-is-chinese-gdp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Jan 2011 12:06:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1436</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most of this week’s newsletter was about the release last week of China’s fourth quarter GDP growth numbers by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).  You can find the full NBS report on their website, but here is the key paragraph: According to preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2010 was 39,798.3 [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2011/01/29/how-big-is-chinese-gdp/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>41</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese growth in 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/12/19/chinese-growth-in-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/12/19/chinese-growth-in-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Dec 2010 11:11:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hot money]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1400</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the past two months there have been very strong rumors in the markets that next year’s new lending quota was going to be set somewhere between RMB 6.5 trillion and RMB 7.0 trillion.  For comparison’s sake, total new lending last year amounted to RMB 9.6 trillion, and this year the quota was RMB 7.5 [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/12/19/chinese-growth-in-2011/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>49</slash:comments>
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		<title>The capital tsunami is a bigger threat than the nuclear option</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:03:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global liquidity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1270</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since this is another long posting, it might make sense to summarize briefly its two parts.  In the first part, expanding on an OpEd piece of mine published by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, I argue that China&#8217;s &#8220;nuclear option&#8221;, which has generated a great deal of nervousness among investors and policy-making circles in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2010/07/14/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>51</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese railways and speculating pig farmers</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/26/chinese-railways-and-speculating-pig-farmers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/26/chinese-railways-and-speculating-pig-farmers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 11:31:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade protection]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=1108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This weeks’ entry is fairly miscellaneous, a consequence both of the amount and variety of news coming out of China and my own hectic schedule, which prevents me from dealing with all of these issues in a more unified way.  Between lots of investor meetings and finishing up a number of writing commitments, I am [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/10/26/chinese-railways-and-speculating-pig-farmers/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>39</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What should have been discussed during the SED meetings (Part 1)</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/07/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-1/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/07/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:17:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=940</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By coincidence I had two OpEd pieces that came out last week, one in the WSJ and the other in the Financial Times.  The latter came about because about a month ago Martin Wolf asked me to write a piece based on my June 20 entry.  The former came about on the previous Friday when [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/07/what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-1/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>34</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>More debate about the validity of economic data</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/03/more-debate-about-the-validity-of-economic-data/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/03/more-debate-about-the-validity-of-economic-data/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 11:15:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal stimulus]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=937</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some of the blog readers have noticed some weird goings-on with recent entries.  From time to time an entry will pop up that seems totally inappropriate to current events.    Sorry.  This is because the old host of my blog, when it was on a different site, is closing down, and I have been going through [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/08/03/more-debate-about-the-validity-of-economic-data/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>34</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>I wasn’t impressed by China’s high reserve and GDP growth numbers</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/07/16/i-wasnt-impressed-by-chinas-high-reserve-and-gdp-growth-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/07/16/i-wasnt-impressed-by-chinas-high-reserve-and-gdp-growth-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=579</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My blog has been blocked in China.  Given all the internet blocking that has happened in the past few months I guess this is not much of a surprise, and I was sort of waiting for it to happen, even while I was hoping that it wouldn’t. I think after a few months – probably [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/07/16/i-wasnt-impressed-by-chinas-high-reserve-and-gdp-growth-numbers/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>86</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China’s savings problem and the consumption constraint</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/06/20/chinas-savings-problem-and-the-consumption-constraint/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/06/20/chinas-savings-problem-and-the-consumption-constraint/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 08:49:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance of payments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chancellor]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mpettis.com/?p=536</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am, still trying to work out the implications for China of a rise in US household savings, but here is how I see it. I welcome comments that may help me refine or refute this argument. For the sake of simplicity I am going to assume that there are only two countries, the US, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2009/06/20/chinas-savings-problem-and-the-consumption-constraint/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>54</slash:comments>
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