Quite a lot of data came in last week as I was recovering from the jet lag generated by last week’s trip to the US, and for good measure, the PBoC then raised minimum reserve requirements Thursday evening. I discuss the numbers extensively in my newsletter, and of course there has been a lot of …
Read More…Category: NPLs
The real cost of Chinese NPLs
Once again I am starting to hear investors tell me that they have been advised by bank analysts not to worry too much about the impact of a banking crisis in China. According to this argument, China has developed a very efficient and low-cost way to address banking crises, and the proof is that China’s …
Read More…The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rates
A lot of people have asked me to write about the recently “leaked” CBRC report on dodgy local government debt. Here is what the article in Monday’s Bloomberg had to say about it (and note especially that delicious second paragraph): Mainland banks may struggle to recoup about 23 per cent of the 7.7 trillion yuan …
Read More…What do banking crises have to do with consumption?
Just three days after returning to Beijing from New York, I had to leave again, this time to a series of conferences in Torino, Italy, so it is hard to do much writing for my blog, especially since I won’t spend my free time in the hotel when there is so damned much food out …
Read More…Who will pay for China’s bad loans?
Since this is a very long post, it may make sense first to provide a quick summary of what I am going to argue. As I have discussed often in earlier posts, pessimists are starting to worry about excessive debt levels in China, about which they are very right to worry, and many are predicting …
Read More…Repairing China’s financial system
The stock market had a bad day today, with the SSE Composite down 3.62%, mainly on rumors that banks will be seeking to raise equity capital next year in response to their loan surge this year. On Tuesday Bloomberg reported that the five largest banks were supposed to have submitted plans to regulators for raising …
Read More…China’s September data suggest that the long-term overcapacity problem is only intensifying
The release of September trade data earlier this week was pretty interesting, although because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September, some of the comparisons are misleading. Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected …
Read More…The IMF warns about surplus countries and global imbalances
As Beijing slowly unlocks from its 60th anniversary celebrations – the streets are still relatively empty but more and more people are going out, although my local Starbucks still hasn’t reopened, forcing me to go elsewhere for my hardcore caffeine fix – a lot is still going on in the rest of the world. Both …
Read More…The credibility of farmers, priests and prostitutes – and bankers?
Three weeks ago China Daily published a pretty funny article about a recent survey on credibility that had taken place in China. According to the article, At a time when shamelessness is pervasive, we are often at loss as to who can be trusted. The five most trustworthy groups, according to a survey by the …
Read More…More public worrying about the Chinese stimulus
Although I am often surprised by how eagerly foreign commentators have embraced the Chinese fiscal stimulus story and see it as a great, shining success, I am happy to say, mercifully, that in China there is a lot more skepticism. There seems to be a serious debate among Chinese policymakers over the stimulus package. The …
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