I don’t have time to do a long entry today, but in my June 30 entry I marveled at the huge explosion in new lending, and claimed that credible rumors suggested that total new loans for June would be an astonishing RMB 1.2 trillion. That would bring total new lending for 2009 to RMB 7.06 [...]
“China’s overall surge in credit in the first half of 2009,” an article in yesterday’s People’s Daily assures us, “is normal and healthy; however problems still exist in the structure, quality and flow of credit. China should continue to optimize credit structure and guard against potential risks.” Credible rumors suggest that new loans in June [...]
Distortions in the Chinese lending environment
May 3rd, 2009
Things have been so busy this past week with various writing commitments and with the celebration of the third anniversary of my music club (four amazing shows with some of Beijing’s greatest artists and a lot of support and coverage from local music scene participants an the press) that I have been neglecting my blog. [...]
The death of the Asian development model
Apr 25th, 2009
One of the few areas in which the Chinese fiscal stimulus package is unquestionably having a positive effect is on growth forecasts – although mainly because forecasts seem to be coincident indicators more than leading indicators. In the past couple of week Morgan Stanley raised its 2009 forecast for Chinese GDP growth from 5.5% to [...]
Banker? Or Grocer?
Mar 16th, 2009
Replenishing bank capital One of the students in Peking University’s Guanghua Students Monetary Policy Committee, a group for which I am an advisor, put together last week a summary of plans to raise capital adequacy ratios for Chinese banks. I thought it would be useful to reproduce his numbers. According to him, Shenzhen Development Bank, [...]
Wow! There are now rumors that Chinese net credit growth in January was substantially higher than the already-astonishing rumors of RMB 1.2 trillion I reported last week. I will get to that at the end of this entry, but I wanted first to discuss a possibly important issue related to credit intervention. It is probably [...]
Hooray! China has bottomed out.
Feb 5th, 2009
Note: In response to many complaints by people who were confused by the headline — I was being sarcastic. Puerile humor, perhaps, but the point is that over the last year it seems that we hit absolute bottom roughly every fifth week. Have we reached a bottom? A lot of analysts are pointing to the [...]
All but the kitchen sink?
Jan 31st, 2009
As the rhetoric around trade continues to deteriorate and the incidence of name calling rises, it is getting harder and harder to discuss global trade and monetary conditions dispassionately and objectively. This should not come as a surprise, and is something I have been “predicting” for several years as part of the standard package of events that [...]
There is some good news about Chinese retail sales, although I am not sure how useful it is because retail sales numbers in China have always been a little hard to reconcile with other indicators of domestic demand. According to an article in today’s Bloomberg: Retail sales in China rose 13 percent during the three-day [...]
Post-Olympic slowdown and AMCs troubles paying their debt
Aug 28th, 2008
I was in Shanghai for the past two days and so wasn’t able to write anything on my blog, although it doesn’t seem like a whole lot has happened recently to add to our understanding of the Chinese economy. The stock market continues to behave poorly, with the SSE Composite dropping 2.6% on Tuesday and [...]
Pettis book on amazon:
-
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
Categories
- Asian development model
- Balance of payments
- Balance sheets
- Bank run
- Banks
- Consumption and production
- Currency regime
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Euro
- Exports and imports
- Financial crisis
- Fiscal debt and deficits
- Fiscal stimulus
- Global liquidity
- History
- Hot money
- Inflation
- Informal banks
- Interest rates
- Labor and unemployment
- Liability management
- Money growth
- NPLs
- PBoC
- Policy
- Real estate
- Reserve currency
- Reserves
- Savings glut
- Sovereign wealth fund
- Speculative markets
- Stock market
- Trade protection
- Trade war
- Uncategorized
Tags
AMCs Balance sheets Bank run Brad Setser Chancellor Competitive edge Consumer demand credit expansion Dalai Lama Dani Rodrik Dan Rosen de la Vega Eichengreen Fiscal package Fiscal plan Germany Great Depression Green GSMC Hot money IMF Inflation Interest rate cut Inventories Keynes Krugman Milk Niall Ferguson NPC One-off Option pricing Overtake Parag Khanna Policy Richard Chew Smoot-Hawley Stabilization fund Stagflation Steve Keen Trade war USD/CNY Victor Shih wages World Bank Zakaria
