Is the PBoC going to stop buying USG bonds? Once again we are hearing very worried noises from various sectors about the possibility of a reduction in Chinese purchases of USG bonds. Here is what an article the South China Morning Post said: China will press ahead with diversification of its US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange [...]
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Posted in Balance of payments, PBoC, Reserve currency, Reserves • 55 Comments »
Most of last week’s newsletter was dedicated to a discussion on Chinese debt, specifically on how we should think about the Chinese debt structure and on when would we know how much debt is too much debt. Every earlier example of the investment-driven growth model that China follows ran into the problem of an unsustainable [...]
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Posted in Balance sheets, Reserve currency • 23 Comments »
The week before last on Thursday the Financial Times published an OpEd piece I wrote arguing that Washington should take the lead in getting the world to abandon the dollar as the dominant reserve currency. My basic argument is that every twenty to thirty years – whenever, it seems, that American current account deficits surge [...]
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Posted in Reserve currency • 49 Comments »
Barry Eichengreen had a very interesting piece in last week’s Wall Street Journal. In it he argues that we are approaching the end of the period in which the US dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency, and suggests what that might mean for the world. Here is what he says: The single most astonishing [...]
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Posted in Reserve currency • 59 Comments »
The seemingly imminent and inexorable rise of the renminbi as a major, even dominant, reserve and trading currency, has been almost as widely heralded as the equivalent rise of the Japanese yen just twenty years ago. Even my normally skeptical friend Nouriel Roubini seems to think so. Here is an article from last year’s Telegraph: [...]
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Posted in Reserve currency • 57 Comments »