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	<title>China Financial Markets</title>
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	<description>Michael Pettis&#039; finance blog...</description>
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		<title>Investment and consumption</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/05/10/investment-and-consumption/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/05/10/investment-and-consumption/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 13:48:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Overinvestment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1823</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth is that it shouldn&#8217;t average much above 3-4% annually. This is what it will take for household consumption to rise to roughly 50% of [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>48</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Feedback loops</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/04/29/feedback-loops/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/04/29/feedback-loops/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2013 12:05:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liability management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reserve currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade war]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1818</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Early this month Martin Wolf had another of his very interesting articles, this time on China, which I think suggests some of the concerns we must have about the upcoming adjustment. Wolf argues that it may be useful to think about Japan as a model for understanding the adjustment process in China since the Japanese model [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/04/29/feedback-loops/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>66</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The challenges for China’s new leadership</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/04/11/the-challenges-for-chinas-new-leadership/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/04/11/the-challenges-for-chinas-new-leadership/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Apr 2013 11:21:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asian development model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1808</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2013 NPC and CPPCC Annual Sessions have ended with the formal selection of China’s new leaders. Not surprisingly there were few surprises. My quick take is that the leadership is saying all the right things, but they have been saying these things for quite a while – nearly two years in the case of [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>66</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>When do we call it a solvency crisis?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/03/21/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/03/21/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Mar 2013 13:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1800</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post is extracted from my newsletter sent out four weeks ago, at a time when the mood in Europe was much better than now and when there was even a sense that the crisis was in the process of being resolved. I mention this to remind readers of how quickly sentiment can chnage. &#8212;&#8212; [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/03/21/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>38</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A brief history of the Chinese growth model</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 05:55:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1791</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As regular readers know I have often argued that the Chinese development model is an old one, and can trace its roots at least as far back as the “American System” of the 1820s and 1830s. This “system” was itself based primarily on the works of the brilliant first US Secretary of the Treasury Alexander [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>115</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What I&#8217;ll be watching in 2013</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/14/what-ill-be-watching-in-2013/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/14/what-ill-be-watching-in-2013/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2013 10:25:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1784</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ll be watching a number of things in 2013 in order to get a better sense of what the future will bring. On January 22 Princeton University Press will be publishing my book, The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead, and in the last chapter of the book I argue that the great trade, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/14/what-ill-be-watching-in-2013/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>50</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Recognizing the need for economic adjustment</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/01/14/recognizing-the-need-for-economic-adjustment/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2013/01/14/recognizing-the-need-for-economic-adjustment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jan 2013 11:33:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hot money]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1768</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six percent, it is probably a safe bet that debt is rising faster than debt servicing capacity. The good news is that the current leadership seems very [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>76</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The IMF on overinvestment</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/28/the-imf-on-overinvestment/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/28/the-imf-on-overinvestment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Dec 2012 10:54:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Overinvestment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/28/the-imf-on-overinvestment/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>117</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Three cheers for the new data?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/04/three-cheers-for-the-new-data/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/04/three-cheers-for-the-new-data/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2012 10:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Consumption and production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The big news in the past two weeks has been the slew of economic data suggesting that China has firmly turned the corner on its economic closedown. Growth is up, investment is up, and inflation is down. Here, for example, is the New York Times, a newspaper whose website is no longer available in China without a VPN: [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/04/three-cheers-for-the-new-data/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>88</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is there an Asian RMB bloc?</title>
		<link>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Nov 2012 06:28:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency regime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reserve currency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mpettis.com/?p=1743</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the past two weeks we have been treated with a mostly positive but nonetheless mixed bag of economic data from China. There has been good news, bad news, good news with worrying underlying trends, and bad news with silver linings. Analysts have announced that things are getting worse and that things are getting better. [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>66</slash:comments>
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